EXANTE, the global prime broker, has released a new research report arguing that investors are treating artificial intelligence purely as a technology play, while overlooking the energy, minerals and water on which the boom depends.

The analysis, titled ‘Beneath the gold rush: The uneven economy of AI‘, looks at how AI spending is changing the global economy across three areas: labour, sovereignty and natural resources.

It was written by Renée Friedman, PhD, EXANTE’s global head of research, and draws on studies from international institutions, banks, consultancies and universities. Its aim is to map where AI’s costs and gains are landing, and to identify risks not yet reflected in corporate disclosures or asset prices.

According to Goldman Sachs projections cited in the report, worldwide AI-related investment is expected to reach $1tn in 2026, with $581bn of that in the US. The report argues that whether this spending pays off depends largely on factors beyond the technology industry, including electricity grids, critical minerals, water supplies, regulation, and how well workers and institutions adapt.

On climate, the report finds that AI’s environmental costs are emerging ahead of its benefits. Allianz estimates that data-centre emissions could more than double to 643 MtCO₂ by 2030 if grids are not decarbonised. 4 Gt annually by 2035, but most of the relevant applications have not yet been deployed at scale. Around half of the footprint by 2030 may come from emissions built into servers and semiconductors, which current ESG reporting struggles to capture, meaning portfolios may feel the risk before the data shows it.

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