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Hybrids were only ever a waypoint, and their story is often misunderstood

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Hybrids were only ever a waypoint, and their story is often misunderstood

In January 2024 Toyota chairman Akio Toyoda suggested that battery EVs would reach at most 30% market share, with the rest going to hybrids, hydrogen and combustion cars. Norway battery-electric vehicles already held about 89% of Norway’s new-car market in that year..

Plug0in hybrid vehicles are conditional transition vehicles. They earn their environmental case through verified electric kilometres, not through the presence of a charging port.

Mature markets tell the more revealing story. Once battery-electric vehicles offer sufficient choice, charging confidence and competitive economics, hybrids do not settle into a permanent share of the market. Hybrids may lead early, peak, and then retreat.

Take the car of Norway. In 2015, hybrid vehicles had gained material market share and plug-in hybrids were beginning to arrive in volume. In 2017, PHEVs accounted for about 18% of new registrations. BEV growth temporarily paused, while hybrids benefited from familiar factories, familiar supply chains and familiar consumer expectation.

After another PHEV surge in 2020 and 2021, the direction changed. By 2026, both conventional hybrids and PHEVs had become marginal in Norway’s new-car market: PHEVs were down from a peak of about 23% of new registrations in 2021 to no more than 1%, while full hybrids peaked, then a fall to below 1%.

It would be easy to dismiss Norway as a special case: a small, affluent and subsidy-supported market.

Singapore has a distinctive vehicle-ownership system , built around Certificates of Entitlement, high ownership costs and tightly managed taxation. Yet the market pattern is recognisable. Full-hybrid share rose to just over 49% of new registrations in September 2024, then fell to 25% in August 2026.


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