Chinese automakers could capture more than 10% of the US new car market by 2038 if the country eases market access restrictions.
Bloomberg reported the forecast on Thursday, citing estimates from market research firm Mobility Global.
Under 1 of the scenarios examined by the firm, Chinese automakers could sell 1.7 million vehicles a year in the US by then, accounting for about 11% of the world's second-largest new car market.
Peter Nagle, Mobility Global's associate director of US vehicle forecasting, presented the estimates to reporters in Detroit on September 23, Bloomberg noted. The firm spun off from S&P Global in July.
The scenario assumes the US eventually allows vehicles built in North America by Chinese automakers into its market, while high tariffs continue to make direct imports from China effectively unviable.
Nagle said there was a "low-to-moderate probability" that barriers to those North American-built vehicles would be lifted over the next 10 years, making policy changes critical to whether the forecast materializes.
Affordability is a key factor underpinning the estimates. New compact and mid-size crossovers sold by Chinese automakers in other countries cost about the same as the average used car in the US, Nagle said.
He said those prices could appeal to American consumers and generate additional demand in a US new car market where overall sales have remained largely flat in recent years.
Under the scenario of eased restrictions, Chinese automakers including BYD (HKEX: 1211), Geely Auto (HKEX: 0175) and SAIC Motor (SSE: 600104) could begin exporting vehicles to the US from factories in Mexico as early as 2029, Nagle estimated.
Source link
