Exporters and importers across the United States and Canada are “weary” and “decidedly glum” in the face of continued political pressures that threaten the future of cross-border trade, according to new research.

Livingston International’s recently released trade dynamics report painted a picture of faltering faith in the future of North American trade, with one-quarter of Canadian exporters saying they’re not confident in the stability of relations moving forward. An additional 40 percent said they were only somewhat confident in the possibility of future stability.

On a less glum note, three-quarters of U.S. respondents and 62 percent of Canadians believe the trade environment will see improvement within the next two years, while around 20 percent believe it will take a bit longer, in the range of three to four years.

By that point, President Donald Trump will have left the White House for the final time, and a new leader will become responsible for repairing frayed trade ties or negotiating a new framework for future trade dynamics.

As it stands, only 34 percent of U.S. businesses and 28 percent of Canadian ones said the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which Trump brokered to replace the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), makes them feel confident about the stability of North American trade over the next five years.

As Livingston analysts pointed out, free trade has been “an integral aspect of supply chain integration and regional interdependence for two generations,” so flagging reliance on the system that facilitates it is significant.

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