Some of the latest projections suggest spending could drop, but even those that predict growth recognize consumers are pressured.

While early holiday forecasts indicated sales would rise, more recent research is telling a different story.

Two holiday forecasts released this month suggest consumer spending for the season may decline, with budgets being stretched between a desire to celebrate and the pressures of the U.S. economy.

Fourth-quarter holiday spend is expected to range from a 1% decline year over year to a 2.5% increase, according to Circana data. The survey of over 3,500 U.S. shoppers found budgets are expected to be $779, compared to $796 in 2025, per the study.

Separately, Simon-Kucher is projecting a 5.5% year-over-year decline in spend for the holiday period, marking a budget average of $1,018, according to a study of 1,500 U.S. adult consumers.

Retailers and consumers are on edge as the festivities ramp up, which has resulted in more value-conscious shopping behaviors.

“Consumers are not abandoning holiday spending, they’re becoming increasingly purposeful about where and how they spend,” Kiara Barrett, head of global thought leadership at Circana, said in a statement. “Throughout 2026, we’ve seen shoppers shift toward a new definition of value, one that extends beyond price alone. While affordability remains important, consumers continue to prioritize purchases that create meaningful moments, strengthen personal connections, improve everyday life, or simply deliver a sense of joy.”

Higher prices across the board are changing some spending patterns. About 77% of consumers say inflation has changed their shopping behaviors, per the Simon-Kucher data.

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