Chargebacks911 has warned that retailers face a longer period of fraud and disputes as holiday shopping starts earlier, with risks from Golden Quarter sales continuing into the new year.
Research cited by the company suggests consumers are bringing forward holiday purchases, extending the period in which merchants may later face refund claims, returns abuse and chargebacks. Attentive's 2026 Consumer Pulse research found that 71% of shoppers plan to start holiday shopping before Black Friday, while 46% intend to begin before November.
Earlier demand also appears to be lengthening the fraud window. Stripe's analysis of the 2025 holiday shopping period found fraud activity began trending upward on November 8 and remained elevated throughout December.
Chargebacks911's 2026 Chargeback Field Report points to mounting pressure on merchants after the point of sale. More than 61% of merchants surveyed said chargebacks had become more frequent over the past three years, while businesses estimated that abusive requests accounted for 27.1% of all returns.
These figures suggest retailers may record strong seasonal sales without yet seeing the full cost of those transactions. Disputes, refunds and chargebacks linked to purchases made in November and December can surface weeks later, affecting reported performance after the holiday period ends.
Monica Eaton, Founder and Chief Executive Officer of Chargebacks911, said retailers often focus on top-line sales during the busiest shopping period while overlooking losses that emerge later.
"Retailers will spend the Golden Quarter measuring transactions, conversion and sales, but none of those numbers tells them what peak season ultimately made them," said Eaton, Founder and Chief Executive Officer, Chargebacks911.
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