About half the gain can be attributed to inflation, according to the retail trade organization.

The National Retail Federation predicted U.S. holiday would grow 4.2 percent during November and December this year, hitting $1.01 trillion.

Nearly half that growth will be from real consumer spending growth, with inflation accounting for the rest of the increase, NRF indicated.

In 2025, holiday sales increased 3.1 percent to $972 billion, according to the NRF.

“We continue to be very impressed with the resilience that consumers have demonstrated, as they continue to spend and power our economy,” said Matthew Shay, NRF president and chief executive officer, during a conference call on the holiday outlook on Thursday. “Households continue to navigate persistent inflation and uneven confidence about the economy, but throughout the year consumers have repeatedly shown that holiday spending on loved ones are priorities, and that’s actually been true for many years.”

NRF’s forecast was made in conjunction with Oxford Economics, and takes into consideration real disposable income, the labor market, the rate of unemployment, wages, household wealth, inflation and the patterns of sales this year so far. The forecast excludes auto dealers, gas stations and restaurants.

Regarding seasonal help, it’s a “low hire, low fire” labor market, where retailers are expected to onboard 325,000 to 375,000 workers, roughly in line with last year’s 356,000 seasonal hires, Shay said.

Mark Mathews, NRF’s chief financial officer, added: “This year, retail spending has been consistently strong. Last week, we released our September retail monitor, which showed 12 consecutive months of retail sales growth, and we expect some of that momentum to push into November and December.

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