Consumers have remained resilient in their shopping habits this year despite macroeconomic headwinds, NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said on Thursday’s call.

However, Mathews acknowledged that inflation undoubtedly contributes to nominal sales growth, with higher diesel prices and increased memory prices pressuring popular gifting categories such as electronics.

“As we head into the holiday period, if gas prices remain higher, we do expect that this will have a larger impact on households at the lower end of the income spectrum,” the chief economist said on the call. “Despite inflationary pressure, we expect goods prices to run lower than headline inflation as retailers respond to a price-conscious consumer.”

NRF’s forecast is based on economic modeling using indicators such as consumer spending, disposable personal income, employment, wages, inflation and previous monthly retail sales. The calculation excludes gas stations, automobile dealers and restaurants.

The potential muted holiday hiring is reflective of how retailers and other industries are navigating a “low hire, low fire environment,” per Mathews.

In 2025, the trade group predicted retailers would hire between 265,000 and 365,000 seasonal workers, in line with a similarly slow labor market. That was a drop from the 442,000 seasonal retail employees hired in 2024.

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