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Silver from China’s retired PV modules peaks nine years before capacity

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Silver from China’s retired PV modules peaks nine years before capacity

Silver released from retired PV modules in China will peak at about 739 metric tons (MT) a year in 2044, nine years before retired capacity peaks at 70.77 GW in 2053, according to a study led by Nankai University in Tianjin. The mismatch arises because early installation cohorts were smaller but carried far more silver per watt than the larger, leaner cohorts that followed.

The researchers estimate that average silver intensity in modules installed in China fell 62% between 2018 and 2025, from 23.33 mg/W to 8.86 mg/W. Over the same period, annual silver going into new installations rose 170%, from about 1,150 MT to 3,109 MT, as deployment growth outpaced thrifting. At the end of 2025, China’s installed fleet held 17,784 MT of silver, 99.5% of all the silver installed since 2000.

The makeup of the retired silver shifts over time. Early-generation crystalline silicon modules account for 88.4% of retired silver in 2025, but at the 2044 peak that share falls to 48.6%, with passivated emitter and rear cell (PERC) modules at 31.1% and tunnel oxide passivated contact (TOPCon) modules at 16.6%. By 2060, PERC and TOPCon together make up 91%. The researchers said recycling facilities should be planned around the technology mix and silver intensity of retiring cohorts as well as retired capacity.

The model also compares recovery scenarios for 2025 to 2060. At a constant 21% recovery rate, about 3,607 MT of silver would be recovered. If recovery rises linearly to 90% by 2030, that increases to 15,336 MT, falling to 13,682 MT if the target is reached in 2045 and 10,612 MT if it is reached only in 2060.


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