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America’s demand for heat pumps isn’t going away just because federal incentives did.

Shipments of heat pumps stayed strong in the first half of 2026, and the tech is on track to match or exceed its best year, according to a recent report from the Building Decarbonization Coalition. The nonprofit relies on data from the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute, a trade group that represents most of the U.S. market.

This is in spite of the fact that President Donald Trump and Republicans in Congress ripped away tax credits that helped households afford heat pumps — which can both cool and warm homes and wean buildings off polluting gas furnaces — as well as rooftop solar, batteries, and other clean energy tech. The 25C tax credit for heat pumps, which shaved up to $2,000 off the price tag, expired at the end of 2025 — seven years earlier than the Biden administration’s deadline.

So what gives? It could be that the tax credit was never a determining factor for most people getting heat pumps — a hypothesis put forth by Lucas Davis, a business professor at the University of California, Berkeley.

S. is driven by geography, climate, and electricity prices. ” Contractors repeatedly told ACHR News, an industry publication, that they were usually the ones bringing up the tax credit to customers, not vice versa.

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