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Forecasting growth

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Forecasting growth

India’s Central Electricity Regulatory Commission (CERC) sets the principal framework for projects connected to India’s interstate transmission system (ISTS), alongside procedures issued by the National Load Despatch Centre (NLDC), Regional Load Despatch Centres (RLDCs) and other system operators. Projects connected within a state are generally subject to the relevant State Electricity Regulatory Commission (SERC), State Load Despatch Centre (SLDC) and state grid code.

These frameworks may define different capacity thresholds, submission deadlines, revision windows and settlement mechanisms. Requirements in Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Rajasthan, Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh should therefore not be treated as interchangeable. A forecasting system designed around an ISTS project may not meet the data format, timing or aggregation requirements of an SLDC-connected plant. The applicable power purchase agreement (PPA), open-access arrangement or market-participation agreement may add further obligations. The result is a regulatory market in which the question is not simply whether a solar plant must forecast – It is who requires what, at which connection point and under which settlement regime.

For utility-scale projects, the central operational requirement is a schedule for the following day in 15-minute time blocks. A full 24-hour schedule contains 96 intervals. The forecast is submitted by the seller, generator or an appointed Qualified Coordinating Agency (QCA), depending on the applicable arrangement. This day-ahead schedule is not necessarily the complete service requirement. The relevant CERC or state procedure may specify a submission cut-off, a minimum lead time and a defined number of intraday revisions. Revisions reflect changes in cloud cover, plant availability, curtailment or grid conditions.


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