The UN Climate Change Conference COP31 will take place in Türkiye in November 2026. A flagship target is to raise the share of final energy demand met by electricity from 20% today to 35% by 2035.

Rising electricity demand signals rising affluence in developing countries, and progress towards “electrification of everything” via solar and wind. Dramatically cheaper, cleaner and more reliable domestic energy is a result.

Most industrial economies (including USA, China, the European Union, Japan and Australia) have annual per capita electricity consumption in the range 6-12 MWh compared with the global average of 4 MWh. For Latin America, India and ASEAN the figure is 1-3 MWh.

In an affluent advanced economy, about 20 Megawatt-hours (MWh) of clean electricity per person per year is required for decarbonisation of land transport, heating & cooling in buildings, water heating, and industrial process heat. This is relatively straightforward using off-the-shelf technology.

Another 5-25 MWh per person per year is required for decarbonization of the chemical industry, which includes metals, plastics, cement, precursor chemicals, and synthetic shipping & aviation fuels. This needs substantial technology development over the next decade.

The “Final energy” mentioned in the COP31 target refers to energy products delivered to the consumer, including vehicle fuel, natural gas and electricity. This is a silly measure of energy because it conflates chemical energy with electrical energy. The electricity used in a heat pump or electric vehicle is 3-5 times smaller than fossil fuel energy delivering the same service.

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