EV heavy trucks hit 50.3% market share in China for September, with sales up 34% from a year ago. Long-haul big rig market share hit 64.5%. China is on track to have over 40% EV market share for the entire year, reaching their 2030 goal in a matter of months. This is not the first time China’s heavy truck market share topped 50%, but that previous blip in December last year was prior to subsidies ending, followed by a dip in January. Current sales rates are not bolstered by the subsidy and are now on a much more stable upward trajectory.

The speed of EV adoption for heavy trucks in China has recently grown much faster than for cars, having risen from just 13.6% in 2024. When I visited Guangzhou in November of last year and again in April of this year, I noticed a lot more green plates on trucks, indicating that they were electric. It seems that my perception is backed by sales data.

With the addition of LNG trucks, diesel’s share of heavy trucks has dropped to roughly 40%. While LNG sales have also declined with the rate of EV adoption, diesel trucks could soon make up less than 1/3 of sales and decline further from there. China could feasibly double its 2030 goal and hit 80% EV penetration, by which point many diesel models are likely to be discontinued.

With these levels of market penetration, in addition to retirements, China’s diesel demand is on track to fall by about 230,000 barrels per day this year, despite increased freight movement.

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