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A degree in Paris, a gigawatt at the border

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A degree in Paris, a gigawatt at the border

When France gets cold, its neighbours feel it at the border. Each degree of French winter cold takes about 1 GW off French net exports and goes with day-ahead prices €5 ($5.6)/MWh to €7/MWh higher in France, Belgium and Germany. Roughly half of the French price response, a third of the Belgian and a quarter of the German is French temperature on its own rather than the neighbours’ weather. Eleven winters of data can also say why the loss sits in the hours solar cannot fill, why the nuclear fleet rather than the thermometer decides whether France keeps exporting, and why a cold spell can leave a solar plant better off.

The winter of 2025/26 showed the whole mechanism in four weeks. 3 GW on average to its six neighbours. 7 GW. 7 GW. 3 GW on its best day of the cold spell. The swing in exports was therefore driven by demand, which rose from 56 GW to 72 GW between the two windows. 6 GW of that 16 GW rise. The remaining 5 GW or so was met mostly by gas, with smaller gains in nuclear, hydro, solar and wind.



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