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An old idea springs anew as a chorus of influential voices predicts that AI may trigger crises of vast magnitude
In a preface to his book Capitalism and Freedom, the American economist Milton Friedman famously observed that a crisis can propel once-fringe ideas into the political mainstream.
“Only a crisis – actual or perceived – produces real change. When that crisis occurs, the actions that are taken depend on the ideas that are lying around,” he wrote. The job of intellectuals, thinktanks and economists, he argued, is to refine the quality of these ambient ideas, so that good ones are ready when disaster strikes.
A chorus of influential voices is now predicting that AI may trigger crises of vast magnitude. Bill Gates has declared that AI will advance so rapidly that within a decade, humans will not be needed “for most things”. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei has warned that the technology could cause widespread unemployment within one to five years, eliminating many positions in law, tech, finance and other white-collar professions. Even if these predictions are wrong, investors who bet heavily on the technology may conclude that AI is a bubble, and this in itself could cause a recession and widespread job loss.
Whether a crisis of mass AI-related job loss turns out to be actual or perceived, one policy idea that is attracting growing attention and support could directly mitigate this problem: a job guarantee.
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