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Vistra (VST) Stock Price Prediction: Earnings beat lifts the setup, but Texas risk and selling pressure cap momentum

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Vistra (VST) Stock Price Prediction: Earnings beat lifts the setup, but Texas risk and selling pressure cap momentum

Vistra (VST) last closed at $133.45 on Nov. 11, 2026, after a 1.73% gain, with after-hours trading slipping to $130.80. The latest results showed stronger earnings and cash flow, but the market is ...

Vistra’s third-quarter 2026 report gave the stock a clear fundamental lift. The company posted adjusted EBITDA of $2.378 billion, ahead of consensus, raised its 2026 guidance, and introduced 2027 guidance that points to another step up in earnings and free cash flow. It also authorized an additional $1.5 billion of share repurchases through year-end 2028, which supports the equity case if execution holds. Vistra’s investor materials dated Nov. 6, 2026, are the key catalyst behind the current debate.

That strength is being offset by a more cautious read from the market. Scotiabank cut its price target to $169 from $189 on Nov. 9, citing elevated political and headline risks in Texas, even while keeping a Sector Outperform rating. Separately, Yahoo Finance highlighted the same investor debate: Texas demand timing, data-center interconnection delays, and regulatory uncertainty around ERCOT.

VST stock is trading above its 7-day average of $129.17 and its 12-day EMA of $131.28, but still below the 20-day SMA of $133.98 and well under the 50-day SMA of $143.31. That puts the name in a short-term recovery attempt rather than a clean trend reversal.

Momentum is mixed. 0000 after a negative MACD reading, which points to fading downside momentum but not confirmed upside thrust. 07.



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