Historical estimates point to stronger USDC growth sensitivity to deposit repricing, while exchange rewards complicate adoption forecasts.

A study released by the Bank for International Settlements on Oct. 13 links bank deposit repricing to a larger estimated slowdown in USDC growth than in USDT growth, so banks' offers can shape stablecoin adoption differently for each issuer.

Higher deposit rates give holders a stronger financial reason to keep balances at a bank. In the study, a one-basis-point deposit-rate increase was associated with about 4.8% less cumulative USDC growth over ten weeks, compared with 1.9% less growth for USDT.

Researchers Rashad Ahmed and Iñaki Aldasoro used weekly data from January 2019 through June 2025. The BIS published the October edition after a first version appeared on March 24, and the earlier abstract already reported the stronger USDC response.

Exchanges can offer variable rewards to eligible customers, adding another price to the competition for balances. That makes the historical issuer split useful for adoption forecasts while leaving today's bank-versus-platform comparison to be established.

The paper's deposit-rate measure averages six national savings and money-market deposit-account series. It is distinct from the Federal Reserve's policy rate and from the rate on any particular high-paying account.

Ordinary least squares (OLS) is the baseline statistical model, while the negative estimates describe slower growth relative to the model's comparison path.

The authors interpret USDC's larger response as consistent with its closer connections to US institutional and decentralized finance users. Those holders may have more reason to compare bank deposits with stablecoin balances, and they associate USDT's weaker response with its offshore and developing-economy uses.

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