Migration estimates are useful for relative sizing, not as forecasts of real-world coordination, fee pressure, or user behavior.

The raw view shows 6,900,573 BTC exposed, but it intentionally treats exposure as a cryptographic condition: a public key has appeared on-chain. That is the right starting point, but it is not the same as economic loss risk. A live exchange wallet, an institutional multisig, a dormant early address, and an abandoned key can all be cryptographically exposed while having very different abilities to migrate. 

2. Active and known-entity exposure is less concerning than raw exposure implies. 

The active >=1 BTC filter captures 3,331,639 BTC, or 48.28% of all exposed supply. This is a large amount of bitcoin, but it is concentrated in 46,163 groups rather than millions of unmanaged holders. The largest visible active exposures include operational entities such as exchanges, brokers, custodial multisig operators, stablecoin infrastructure, and mining-related wallets. These entities are among the most likely to monitor quantum developments, coordinate wallet rotations, and migrate before a practical attack window opens. 

This does not make the exposure irrelevant. It creates coordination and execution risk. But it is meaningfully different from lost-key risk: active custodial and exchange balances are generally the coins most likely to move first in a credible threat scenario. 

When active entities are removed and the view is narrowed to never-spent or inactive balances of at least 1 BTC, exposed supply is 3,413,767 BTC. After removing known operational entities while retaining Satoshi-attributed coins, the remaining exposed supply falls to 2,277,978 BTC across 73,658 groups and 1,096,018 UTXOs.

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