As global bond yields rise, the usual narrative frames it as bearish for bitcoin
Yields snapped back into focus Wednesday. The U.S. 10-year jumped 15 basis points to its highest level since 2007, topping 5.13%, and pulled yields higher across the globe, as the feature image shows.
The standard interpretation is that as yields climb, the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like bitcoin and gold rises, potentially pulling money toward bonds instead. In short, it’s a headwind, not a tailwind, for crypto.
That logic makes sense on paper. But correlations don't back it up.
The 90-day correlation between bitcoin's daily returns and the U.S. 10-year yield's daily moves is just −0.18, according to data analyzed by CoinDesk. That's close to zero and almost indistinguishable from no relationship at all.
Longer windows show the same thing, with the 180-day correlation at −0.06 and the 1-year figure at −0.03. Bitcoin is equally uncorrelated to yields of other nations.
Being this uncorrelated is actually a benefit. It means bitcoin can serve a similar role to other alternative investments in improving a portfolio's risk-adjusted returns, as investment banks have argued for years. Crypto analysts suggest the same.
S. Treasury yields is a genuine portfolio advantage because it suggests BTC is not simply trading as a duration or rates asset. S. 17, with the relationship at times moving even closer to zero,” Lacie Zhang, research lead at Bitget Wallet, told CoinDesk.
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