Home / Economy / News / Replacing 1 mn bpd of Russian oil could cost India up to $3.7 bn a year
Replacing 1 mn bpd of Russian oil could cost India up to $3.7 bn a year
India may face higher crude costs and tighter supply as refiners look for alternatives to Russian barrels amid US tariff pressure and rising fuel demand
Apexa Rai New Delhi 3 min read Last Updated : Sep 26 2026 | 1:52 PM IST
India could face an additional $1.8-3.7 billion a year in crude oil costs if it replaces 1 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian oil with supplies that are $5-10 a barrel more expensive, Financial Express reported on Friday.
Replacing around 2 million bpd could broadly double the impact, although the estimate is a sensitivity calculation rather than a forecast of the current price differential, Natalia Katona, a UAE-based freelance commodity analyst, told FE .
The bigger challenge for India, however, could be the availability of alternative crude rather than its price.
Russia supplied India around 1.9 million bpd in August, accounting for about 42 per cent of its crude imports, according to the data cited in the analysis. Indian authorities have prioritised energy security and national interests, suggesting that any change in sourcing would more likely involve diversification than a sharp retreat from Russian crude.
India is also heading into its peak fuel-demand season, which runs from October through March-April. Crude requirements are expected to increase during this period, while refinery runs move towards maximum levels, leaving limited scope to reduce overall imports.
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