The prediction giant's American turnover surged 78% in 30 days, leaving its fastest-growing operation exposed to an escalating regulatory dispute.

Polymarket's US prediction exchange recorded about $13.7 billion in contract-face-value trading in the 30 days through Oct. 26, with sports accounting for 98.2% of that turnover, according to DeFi Rate's data.

That concentration leaves its American expansion heavily exposed to the dispute over whether sports event contracts fall under federal derivatives oversight or state gambling laws.

The figures coincide with Reuters' Oct. 27 report that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is again examining compliance with Polymarket's 2022 settlement restricting US access to its offshore platform.

The report also examined onboarding and customer protections at the newer US exchange, citing two people familiar with the matter.

Alongside these questions sits a broader fight over who regulates prediction markets, as the CFTC announced Oct. 27 that it had sued Utah, adding to proceedings against nine other states.

In a measurement from Sept. 27 to Oct. 26, DeFi Rate puts Polymarket US's face-value turnover up 78% from the preceding 30 days, with sports supplying about $13.5 billion of the latest total.

The dataset counts each contract at its $1 face value, regardless of its purchase price. A contract bought for 10 cents that pays $1 if correct contributes $1 to headline volume and 10 cents to dollars paid.

Face-value turnover measures something different from trading volume, and both are measures of trading activity.

The matching venue comparison shows how the choice of measurement changes the balance between Polymarket's two businesses:

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