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Next Week’s Midterms Could Stall the CLARITY Act and Test Crypto’s Political Clout: TD Cowen

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Next Week’s Midterms Could Stall the CLARITY Act and Test Crypto’s Political Clout: TD Cowen

Bitcoin Magazine

Next Week’s Midterms Could Stall the CLARITY Act and Test Crypto’s Political Clout: TD Cowen 

Washington’s crypto agenda hinges on next week’s midterm elections, according to a new policy note from TD Cowen, shared with Bitcoin Magazine. 

Analyst Jaret Seiberg warned in the note that the probable results could make it difficult for Congress to pass the CLARITY Act over the next two years. The bill would set the rules for bitcoin and other digital assets, and the industry has spent $176 million on more than 100 races to shape the outcome. Here are a couple of the results:

Prediction markets cited in the report give Democrats a 90% chance of winning the House and a 62% chance of winning the Senate. TD Cowen considers this the most negative scenario for bitcoin and the broader crypto sector. Under it, Sen. Elizabeth Warren would become Senate Banking Committee chair. Seiberg describes her as a crypto skeptic who has led opposition to the CLARITY Act, and he expects her to conduct tough oversight of federal regulators.

Warren cannot stop regulators from adopting policies that favor the industry. Seiberg expects President Trump to remain favorable toward crypto, so he would veto any bill that limits his regulators’ authority. Democrats would lack the votes to override him. As a result, policy changes are expected to focus on tokenization, perpetual futures, and stablecoins.

The second scenario keeps Democrats in control of the House while key Senate races stay close enough to break for Republicans.


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