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Kalshi’s Senate contracts can settle on different answers to the same election

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Kalshi’s Senate contracts can settle on different answers to the same election

An Oct. 28 snapshot shows a loss before fees when outcomes align, while different settlement rules expose the package to another risk.

Prediction exchange Kalshi’s Senate markets showed different Democratic odds on Oct. 28, but buying a four-contract hedge at the quoted prices cost $3.02 before fees for a $3 gross payout only if the control and seat-count outcomes aligned.

The Senate-control market had a 64.5% midpoint at 22:11:45 UTC, while a normalized estimate from the Democratic seat-count markets put the chance of 51 or more seats at about 62.1%. That 2.4-percentage-point gap was a comparison between prices. The four purchase quotes already exceeded the conditional payout by two cents, and the contracts’ different settlement provisions left a separate risk.

The quote test comes alongside Talos’s Oct. 28 research into pricing differences across Senate markets. Its historical nine-leg model found occasional positive results under stated execution assumptions. The four-leg calculation here examines a separate package using purchase quotes captured on Oct. 28.

The package combines one YES on Democratic Senate control with one NO on each of three disjoint seat outcomes: exactly 51, exactly 52 and above 52. Those seat buckets cover every Democratic total of 51 or more without overlapping.

If Democratic control resolves YES and Democrats finish in one of those seat buckets, the control contract pays $1. Two of the three seat-NO contracts pay $1 each, while the third pays nothing. The total is $3.

If control resolves NO and Democrats finish below 51 seats, all three seat-NO contracts pay and the control YES pays nothing.


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