James Lavish told BMTV last month that he believes the bottom is in, and he says that cycle call still holds after hike odds spiked and tech stocks wobbled. He maps Bitcoin’s highs to the halving, the four-year election calendar, and the broader economic cycle, which in his framework still points to a mid-2029 peak. Looking at the power law, he says a one-standard-deviation move above the mean would be consistent with the $400,000 to $500,000 range, and that he “would be absolutely shocked” if Bitcoin were not in the $200,000 to $300,000 range by then. He is not treating short-term rate jitters as a reason to abandon that cycle work.

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Chapters: 00:00 Fiscal Dominance and the $2 Trillion Deficit 01:51 The Fed Balance Sheet Is Growing Again 03:07 Hot CPI and a Near-Certain December Hike 05:23 Bitcoin Trades on Short-Term Interest Rates 06:35 The Fed Can’t Print Oil or Fix Home Prices 08:34 When the Fed Called Uncle in 2018 and 2022 11:11 A December Hike and Possibly 50 Basis Points 12:47 Treasury’s Quasi-Twist and $13 Trillion to Refinance 15:08 Why Bitcoin and Gold Are Struggling This Cycle 17:33 JPMorgan Says Bitcoin Beats Stocks, Bonds, and Gold 19:42 From Career Risk to a Risk Not to Have Any 22:18 The Cycle Still Points to a Mid-2029 High

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