Both crypto and Wall Street could be in for a strong run after the Nov. 3 U.S. midterm elections, if history is a guide.
Since its inception in 2009, bitcoin , the largest cryptocurrency by market value, has seen four midterms. Leaving out 2010, when the market was tiny and fringe, the other three saw prices for the cryptocurrency rise an average of 53.7% in the 12 months after Election Day, according to data analyzed by CoinDesk. The returns here refer to the percentage rise from the daily close (00:00 UTC) on Election Day to the close on the same date a year later.
Bitcoin surged 1,579% in the 12 months after the 2010 midterm, but the market was fringe and too small then for that figure to be reliable.
If history repeats, bitcoin’s recent subdued price action around $80,000 could pave the way for another leg higher after Nov. 3. BTC has already bounced more than 35% since bottoming out below $60,000 in June. Some analysts believe now is the time to buy and hold crypto, as a new bull run is upon us.
Still, history is too limited to draw firm conclusions, and the post-midterm surges in BTC seen over the years may have more to do with the four-year cycle than U.S. politics.
Bitcoin tends to move in cycles of roughly four years, built around the mining reward halving, an inbuilt code in the Bitcoin blockchain that reduces the per block BTC produced and given to miners by 50% every four years.
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