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Ethereum’s past outflow charts can change when more exchange wallets are identified

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Ethereum’s past outflow charts can change when more exchange wallets are identified

Coin Metrics has rebuilt Ethereum's historical Standard Flow Metrics, raising a timing problem for tests that treat exchange outflows as a trading signal.

The crypto data provider's Oct. 1 notice says it recomputed Ethereum Standard Flow Metrics from the network's first block using its most up-to-date information as part of its Ethereum Point-in-Time release. The affected scope is all ETH Flow Metrics at daily and hourly frequencies, with corrected history available for backfilling.

That creates a practical distinction for investment research. A chart downloaded today can describe past flows using knowledge acquired later. A backtest, which replays a trading rule through historical data, needs the information available when each decision would have occurred. Those are different information sets, even when their observations carry the same dates.

The notice supplies no revision amounts or ETH strategy comparison. The immediate consequence is a need to identify data vintage, meaning the version of the data used in the test; any effect on returns still requires measurement.

Coin Metrics' flow methodology makes the distinction concrete. Standard metrics use all addresses currently known to belong to an exchange or other tracked entity, with each address's history starting at its first nonzero balance. Past values can be restated when additional entity addresses are identified.

Its Point-in-Time, or PIT, series instead uses addresses known to belong to the entity during the historical interval. An address contributes from its discovery date, and later discoveries do not rewrite earlier PIT intervals. The provider documents daily and hourly PIT counterparts to Standard exchange-flow metrics.


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