Glassnode’s Q4 2026 report with Coinbase Institutional says bitcoin’s Q3 recovery was constructive, though recent inflation data has renewed caution.
Glassnode’s Q4 2026 report with Coinbase Institutional says bitcoin moved from a bottoming process into an early recovery in the third quarter, even as the Federal Reserve resumed tightening and long-term Treasury yields climbed. The report, published on October 15, 2026, describes the quarter’s setup as constructive into year-end, while also flagging near-term caution.
The report says the analysis combines Glassnode on-chain data with market and macro data through the end of September. It frames the quarter in three parts: the macro backdrop and fund flows, bitcoin’s on-chain and derivatives data, and Ethereum’s market and network activity. The authors also say the outlook is constructive, but they stop short of calling the recovery complete.
On chain, Glassnode says net unrealized profit/loss, or NUPL, climbed back into the Optimism/Anxiety band during the quarter and remains well below the Belief/Denial threshold. The report also says long-term holders largely kept their supply through the rally, while dormant supply older than one year continued to grow and recently moved coins returned to circulation as newer participants re-entered.
The report highlights a dense band of supply just above spot, including the zone that capped the September highs, heavier cost-basis supply above that area, and overlapping support layers below current price. Those observations suggest the market entered October with nearby overhead supply and support zones still in place.
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