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Buying Bitcoin without betting on a rally may not pay

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Buying Bitcoin without betting on a rally may not pay

A November 10 snapshot offered about $119 per Bitcoin from a hedged trade, against $135 in illustrative borrowing costs over 17 days.

Buying Bitcoin while hedging against a price drop can earn a return without a rally. But November 10 pricing offered about $119 per BTC before costs, less than the roughly $135 needed to finance the purchase for 17 days in an illustrative borrowing calculation.

The strategy, known as cash-and-carry, pairs a Bitcoin purchase with a futures sale. It seeks to earn the premium between the two markets as their prices converge. Its attraction depends on the cost of funding and maintaining both positions.

The comparison uses CME’s November futures settlement and Coinbase’s price during the settlement window. It implies about 3.48% gross annualized carry, against a 3.88% overnight financing benchmark.

CME’s preliminary bulletin No. 217, dated November 10, lists the November Bitcoin futures settlement at $73,805 per BTC.

Coinbase’s BTC-USD candle beginning at 20:59 UTC closed at $73,685.73. That minute corresponds to 2:59–3:00 p.m. Central Standard Time, aligning with CME’s stated daily settlement window.

Subtracting the Coinbase close from the futures settlement gives a $119.27 premium, or about 0.16% of the spot price. Using the 17-day calendar-date difference to November 27 expiry and a simple 365-day annualization produces the following sensitivity:

The range shows how much a short-dated annualized figure can move with a relatively small change in spot price.

These remain pricing proxies. Coinbase’s candle close is a single venue’s last trade within the minute, while CME’s daily settlement methodology uses a volume-weighted futures price.


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