Bitcoin Magazine
BTC Hash Ribbon Signal Flipped: Bitcoin Miners Show the Bottom Might Be In
The hash ribbon recovered on August 26 and has held for 61 days. Historically, Bitcoin was higher one year later in six of seven counted recoveries, about a 72% edge. Sean Hagan breaks down the signal, the misses (15 of 231, notably April 2021 at -17%), the January signal still 12% underwater, and why the 30-day hash rate at roughly 1.1 ZH, up 13% from July, says the worst of the miner stress is behind us. Grace Remington asks the right question: if miners left voluntarily, is the signal still reliable?
Chapters:
0:00 The Hash Ribbon Explained: Counting Miner Capitulation Days Since 2011
0:26 A New Record: 223 of 365 Days in Capitulation vs. 141 in 2012
1:01 Why This Cycle Is Different: Miners Left for $100 Billion in AI Contracts
1:48 More Like the 2021 China Ban Than 2018 or 2022
2:14 The Timing Still Fits: Capitulation Peaked 56 Days After the June 30 Low
2:37 Hash Ribbon Recovered 61 Straight Days, Hash Rate Up 13% From the Low
3:20 Price Agrees: MVRV Above Its Average and Bitcoin Above the 50-Week
3:58 Is the Signal Reliable If Miners Left Voluntarily? Higher 6 of 7 Times
5:18 Could Hash Rate Come Back From AI as the Build-Out Hits Bottlenecks?
6:52 A Backward-Looking Chart With a 70%-Plus Directional Track Record
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