Cheaper crude may not bring the fuel-price relief Bitcoin needs: damaged refineries are keeping the 2027 diesel forecast above $5 a gallon.

The US Energy Information Administration raised its forecast for next year’s retail diesel price by 12%, reducing the fuel-cost relief it previously expected. That leaves less room for falling fuel costs to cool inflation and bring the lower interest rates that could help Bitcoin, even as the agency projects cheaper crude in 2027.

The EIA’s November 10 outlook puts the 2027 US diesel average at $5.03 a gallon, up from $4.49 in its October 6 forecast. That is an upward revision to the same annual forecast, rather than a 12% increase in observed pump prices.

Diesel is still projected to fall from a forecast $5.25 average in 2026. EIA also expects Brent crude to average $86 a barrel in 2027, down from a projected $97 this year. Inputs were finalized November 5, so the outlook does not specifically account for subsequent market events.

Cheaper crude does not guarantee a matching decline in finished-fuel costs. EIA assumes petroleum-product supply constraints will continue through the end of 2027, supporting wider crack spreads: the gap between refined-product prices and crude costs.

The agency attributes elevated refining margins to damaged refineries in the Middle East and Russia, which have reduced product exports. It expects disruptions to be concentrated early next year and constraints to ease thereafter, while warning that unplanned outages and deferred maintenance could disrupt refinery operations.

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