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Bitcoin’s next Fed test comes with a hidden problem in America’s inflation data

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Bitcoin’s next Fed test comes with a hidden problem in America’s inflation data

Government figures show nearly 34% of targeted consumer price quotes went uncollected in September, raising questions about measurement uncertainty.

Bitcoin faces another Federal Reserve interest-rate decision as the US struggles to restore the surveys underpinning its inflation figures.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics collected 66.3% of targeted price observations in its commodities-and-services survey in September, according to figures updated October 19. That was a modest improvement from 65.9% in August but remained below the 67.6% recorded a year earlier.

The shortfall comes as the agency rebuilds data-collection operations after staffing and survey reductions introduced in 2025, with restoration still incomplete ahead of the Federal Reserve's October 27–28 policy meeting.

The uncertainty adds another consideration to an already difficult inflation outlook after US consumer prices rose 3.7% annually in September, accelerating from 3.4% in August.

Bitcoin has already demonstrated its sensitivity to the inflation figures driving interest-rate expectations.

In its October 16 market commentary, Coinbase Institutional reported that Bitcoin fell from approximately $83,800 to below $82,000 in the hours following September's hotter-than-expected CPI release, which sent two-year Treasury yields sharply higher.

The latest BLS disclosure raises questions about the statistical information supporting those closely watched figures, although the agency has not identified a directional bias in its recent inflation estimates.

The BLS began scaling back consumer price collection in several US locations in summer 2025, suspending operations in Lincoln, Nebraska; Provo, Utah; and Buffalo, New York.

The agency resumed recruitment, hiring, and training in November 2025 and said in an October 22 update that collection would gradually expand as additional field staff became operational.


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