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Bitcoin’s failed breakout reveals a dangerous mix of thin volume and easy profits

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Bitcoin’s failed breakout reveals a dangerous mix of thin volume and easy profits

Bitcoin has fallen nearly 5% this week as weak trading volume and profit-taking blunt attempts to reclaim $85,000.

The largest cryptocurrency traded around $83,100 as of press time, extending a retreat that followed Sunday’s brief close above the key level. Bitcoin has since failed to sustain that breakout, slipping beneath newly placed sell orders before buyers around $85,000 also gave way.

On-chain data suggests the pullback is unfolding against two related pressures: unusually weak participation and a large pool of recent buyers with profits available to realize.

Combined Bitcoin trading across spot exchanges and US spot exchange-traded funds averaged about $6.8 billion a day over the seven days through Oct. 6, Glassnode said. That was lower than on 90% of trading days since January 2024.

The weakness persisted even as Bitcoin tried to break resistance. Sunday’s close above $85,000 came on roughly half the trading volume of a typical Sunday, while no session since Sept. 22 has recorded normal spot volume for its respective day of the week.

At the same time, sellers approaching the market have increasingly been recent buyers sitting on gains.

About 86% of all Bitcoin sent to exchanges on Oct. 4 came from short-term holders moving coins at a profit, according to Glassnode. This share was the highest in a year, compared with less than 40% on a typical day.

Glassnode classifies short-term holders as investors who have owned Bitcoin for less than 155 days. Transfers to exchanges can precede sales but do not establish that the coins were ultimately liquidated.


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