Glassnode data shows long-term holder losses have plunged 85%, but concentrated leveraged positions threaten a fresh selloff if Bitcoin's biggest buy orders fail.

Bitcoin registered an intraday low of $81,514.28 on Oct. 14 as September CPI came in hotter than forecast, with headline inflation at 3.7% year over year against 3.6% expected and core at 2.6% against 2.5%.

Glassnode's latest on-chain data suggests a calmer holder base than the price action. The harder test sits near $80,000, where large spot bids and modeled long liquidations overlap, and altcoins carry a different set of risks.

Headline CPI rose 0.6% on the month, in line with expectations; core rose 0.3% vs. the expected 0.2%, and gasoline supplied more than half of the headline increase, while stronger shelter and other underlying prices kept core firm.

The dollar strengthened, equities fell, and traders lifted the probability of an October Fed
hike from about 20% to 41% on LSEG pricing.

The Fed raised its target range to 3.75% to 4.00% in September, and the next decision arrives Oct. 28. Bitfinex put the 10-year real Treasury yield at 2.91% on Oct. 9, and it treats sustained levels above 3% as a macro headwind.

Glassnode's Oct. 14 report finds long-term holder realized losses down about 85% from their Aug. 12 peak. Profit-taking now dominates, with roughly four coins spent in profit for every coin spent at a loss, against about 12 coins spent at a loss for every coin in profit in June.

Bitcoin trades above its True Market Mean near $78,000, a proxy for the average cost basis of economically active investors.

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