The October 26 options snapshot carried a much smaller election-window premium than in 2024. The Fed has since held rates after September’s hike.
In Block Scholes’ October 26 snapshot, Bitcoin options carried a much smaller election premium ahead of the November 3 US midterms than before the 2024 presidential election. The comparison measures the extra forward volatility priced into the window containing the vote. The Federal Reserve has since held rates at 3.75%–4% on October 28, following its September increase.
A report from derivatives research firm Block Scholes, updated October 27, compares Bitcoin options eight days before the 2024 presidential election and the 2026 congressional midterms. Its finding gives holders a reason to focus on what the result changes in investors’ expectations, rather than treating election day itself as a recovery catalyst.
The test arrives during an uneven rebound. CryptoSlate’s Bitcoin price page showed a quote near $80,069 in an October 29 snapshot, down 4.9% over 30 days and 36.6% below its all-time high.
Block Scholes’ October 26, 2026, snapshot at 09:00 UTC put annualized forward implied volatility at 37.8% for the seven-to-14-day window containing the election. The corresponding 14-to-30-day reading was 35%, while the 30-to-60-day reading was 37.7%.
The election window therefore carried premiums of 2.8 and 0.1 volatility points over those later intervals. At the matched observation on October 28, 2024, the premiums were 14.4 and 10.8 points. The distinction concerns the shape of the pricing curve, as well as the volatility level.
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