Laevitas’s Oct. 26 snapshot showed a 9.2-point implied-versus-realized premium, putting buyers’ exposure after policy decisions in focus.

Bitcoin options priced larger short-term swings ahead of this week’s central-bank decisions, with derivatives analytics provider Laevitas’s Oct. 26 snapshot showing a premium over recently realized price swings. Buyers holding through the announcements face the risk that some of that premium fades before Bitcoin moves enough to offset it.

The Federal Reserve’s October calendar schedules today’s decision for 2 p.m. Eastern, followed by a 2:30 p.m. press conference.

Implied volatility reflects the movement priced into options. Laevitas reported its seven-day at-the-money reading at 36.5%, up from 32% a week earlier. At-the-money options have strike prices near the underlying market level. The seven-day reading was close to its 30-day equivalent of 37%, bringing short-term implied volatility close to longer maturities.

In its separate seven-day implied-versus-realized comparison, Laevitas paired 36.1% implied volatility with 26.9% realized volatility, a reported 9.2-volatility-point gap.

Realized volatility measures movement that has already occurred. All these readings are annualized. The gap therefore compares future uncertainty with past price action.

That is a change in setup from CryptoSlate’s Oct. 12 coverage, which described cheaper short-term volatility before CPI.

The relative price of downside protection remained near its usual level. Laevitas put Bitcoin’s 30-day 25-delta skew at minus 4.64 volatility points, almost matching its minus 4.62 median and ranking at the 49th percentile over 52 weeks.

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