Analysts see Bitcoin oscillating between $80,000 and $88,000, with weakening ETF demand and the Federal Reserve's next decision threatening to break the range.

Two hot inflation reports in two days resulted in Bitcoin falling below $80,000 on Oct. 15.

September CPI accelerated to 3.7% from 3.4%, and producer prices jumped 1.3% on the month, the largest rise since March 2022 and more than double the forecast in most surveys.

Can-Luca Köymen, investment strategist at Sygnum, said in a note that the bank's base case is a range-bound move into the midterms.

Köymen says options price roughly $80,000 to $87,000 over the coming month, and on-chain cost-basis data draws much the same box. Support sits at $80,000 to $81,500, where the average US spot ETF buyer breaks even, and resistance sits near $88,000, the break-even for buyers from six to 12 months ago.

Below $80,000, the next floor is around $78,000, the average cost basis of active investors.

Glassnode's Oct. 14 report estimates the aggregate cost basis of Bitcoin held by US spot ETFs near $81,500, which describes the funds' aggregate holdings, a measure separate from each shareholder's personal entry price.

It puts the six-to-12-month cohort's cost basis near $88,000 and the True Market Mean near $78,000, and it finds the largest concentrated Binance spot bids around $80,000. Bitcoin dipped below the ETF cost basis on Oct. 8 and Oct. 13 and closed back above it both days.

That points to recurring demand at the zone and gives the range an identifiable economic reason.

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