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Bitcoin faces a $25B Treasury test after demand for US debt weakens

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Bitcoin faces a $25B Treasury test after demand for US debt weakens

The thirty-year sale follows weaker ten-year participation, with Bitcoin’s risk tied to yields and financing conditions.

Treasury's Nov. 10 sale of $42 billion in 10-year notes drew weaker bid coverage and indirect participation than October's auction, despite clearing at a lower yield. That leaves Bitcoin investors watching whether today's long-bond sale makes financing more expensive.

Treasury has scheduled a $25 billion sale of 30-year bonds for Nov. 12 at 1 p.m. Eastern. Its result will offer another reading on demand for long-term government debt.

The November 10-year auction cleared at a high yield of 5.02%, down from 5.3% at October's reopening. But its bid-to-cover ratio fell to 2.46 from 2.77, indicating less bidding relative to the amount awarded. The yield measures the return accepted by buyers; coverage describes the volume of bidding.

Indirect bidders received about 61.2% of November's competitive awards, compared with 80.3% in October. These shares exclude noncompetitive allocations and Federal Reserve add-ons.

The size comparison matters. October's $39 billion sale reopened the August note, while November offered a new security. August provides a same-size comparison: its $42 billion new issue drew 2.53 bid coverage and approximately 76.7% indirect participation. It cleared at 4.68%, below November's yield.

November drew weaker participation on both measures against each comparator. August matches its offering size and new-issue status, although the securities and market conditions differ.

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November's ten-year sale drew lower bid coverage and indirect participation than August and October, even though the yield comparison changes.


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