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BABA Price Prediction: Wall Street Targets $186 While the Stock Trades at $107 — This Disconnect Is Unsustainable

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BABA Price Prediction: Wall Street Targets $186 While the Stock Trades at $107 — This Disconnect Is Unsustainable

BABA sits at $107.68, a staggering 72% below the Street's consensus price target of $186, while Alibaba Cloud's AI engine posts 45% external revenue growth. Either $105 holds as the floor and bulls...

Here is the central contradiction every serious BABA trader has to grapple with right now: Alibaba's CEO Eddie Wu called Q4 FY2026 "a strong quarter, driven by the improving commercialization of full-stack AI capabilities," with Cloud's external revenue growth accelerating to 45%. That is not a turnaround story — that is a category leader posting category-defining numbers. AI-related product revenue has now delivered triple-digit growth for the twelfth consecutive quarter. Twelve quarters. That is three years of unbroken AI revenue acceleration, and the market has essentially decided to look the other way.

The underlying driver is clear: Alibaba's Qwen LLM carries 300 million monthly active users, over 100,000 Zhenwu PPU AI chips have been deployed, and Alibaba Cloud holds 35.8% of China's AI cloud market. Meanwhile, Alibaba's news flow is dominated by AI infrastructure spending, a new Zhenwu V900 chip, and expansion plans for global cloud capacity.

68 today. 67. The stock has been nearly halved from peak levels. The next hard catalyst on the calendar is the estimated earnings date of November 24, 2026. That is the re-rating event bulls are positioning for. While tokenized BABA shares on Binance trade around the clock, the fundamental pricing anchor remains tethered to Wall Street sessions — which means the real fireworks come with each earnings print and the market open reaction that follows.


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