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BABA Price Prediction: The $10 Billion Dilution Trap — Or the AI Trade of the Decade?

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BABA Price Prediction: The $10 Billion Dilution Trap — Or the AI Trade of the Decade?

BABA has collapsed nearly 6% in 24 hours to $112.81, breached its 50-day moving average, and is sitting in no-man's land between a $109 support floor and a $118.55 resistance ceiling — but with for...

BABA is getting brutalized in today's session. Down 5.58% over the last 24 hours with a range stretching from $120.81 down to $111.58, the tokenized shares are pricing in maximum anxiety around Alibaba's controversial $10.2 billion equity raise — a capital event that has split Wall Street squarely down the middle. The stock is now trading roughly 41% off its 52-week high of $192.67 and has shed more than 22% year-to-date from its January open near $146.58. That's not a correction; that's a full-blown repricing event.

The core tension is this: Alibaba went out and raised over $10 billion in new equity at a discount, issuing 710 million new shares — right after reporting it held $30.7 billion in net cash. Chairman Joe Tsai and CEO Eddie Wu stepped up and bought a combined HK$120 million in open market stock, and the institutional placement was reportedly covered nearly three times over, signaling real demand beneath the surface. But the market's trust in management has taken a hit, and that credibility gap is being marked down in real time. Readers tracking the broader narrative around this story can find ongoing coverage at Blockchain.news.

This isn't a broken business. Alibaba Cloud's external revenue grew 45% year-over-year — the fastest rate in 22 quarters. 4 billion, marking 12 consecutive quarters of triple-digit growth, now accounting for roughly 35% of external cloud revenue.


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