Humanoid robot production in the US is expected to reach 300,000-400,000 units by 2030 and around 1.5 million units by 2035, according to JPMorgan. The industry is moving beyond demonstrations towards commercial deployment, the brokerage said on Thursday (November 12).
Labour shortages, improving economics and rising production capacity are driving the adoption of humanoid robots across manufacturing, logistics and warehousing, as businesses increasingly look to automate repetitive tasks.
• The Trump administration's finding that imported robotics and industrial machinery pose national security risks could lead to tariffs or other measures aimed at boosting domestic production, JPMorgan said.
• Humanoid robot deployment remains constrained by hardware, AI training data, computing power and production capacity. Most US manufacturers, excluding Tesla, are targeting annual production of 10,000-30,000 units.
• The brokerage estimates that humanoid robot costs are nearing parity with labour costs. Deployment across multiple shifts could generate annual savings of around $100,000 per customer.
• "Near-term progress remains supply constrained, with a few binding bottlenecks: hands, actuators, the brain, and production capacity," the brokerage said.
• Component suppliers offer the biggest near-term opportunity, according to JPMorgan. It expects the market for key components, including actuators, motors and vision systems, to approach $30 billion by 2035.
• Among US humanoid robot manufacturers, JPMorgan identified Tesla's Optimus, Agility Robotics' Digit, Boston Dynamics' Atlas, Figure AI's Figure robots and Apptronik's Apollo as key players.
• The brokerage favours component suppliers such as Timken, Robotis, Leader Drive, Orbbec and Cognex.
• Over time, JPMorgan expects value creation to shift towards robot manufacturers and platform integrators as the industry matures.
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