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Ever since the pandemic-era housing demand surge fizzled out, mortgage rates spiked, and switching costs got out of whack, U.S. existing-home sales have been stuck at historically low levels. That’s been true in relatively more resilient housing markets across pockets of the Northeast and Midwest over the past few years, and it has also been the case in relatively softer housing markets across the Sun Belt that have been experiencing a more pronounced cyclical cooling.

Every month, you’ll see media reports about U.S. existing-home sales “rising” or “falling,” based on modest upticks or downticks in the headline seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of U.S. existing-home sales published by the National Association of Realtors. However, when you peel back the onion and look at the unadjusted monthly figures, accounting for normal seasonal patterns, the reality is that U.S. existing-home sales haven’t really budged much. In fact, this September reading published this week officially marks four straight years of “historically low” resale turnover.

Ever since mid-2022, U.S. resale transactions have largely been bouncing along the “Ds of Housing” transaction floor: Existing home sales that still occur out of necessity due to life events such as death, divorce, disability, and other circumstances that force households to move.

Below is ResiClub ’s Resale Turnover Index. It adjusts for population change (in this case, using owner-occupied households) to allow for a more apples-to-apples comparison across decades.

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