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The Atlantic’s Record-Late First Hurricane May Be Brewing in the Gulf

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The Atlantic’s Record-Late First Hurricane May Be Brewing in the Gulf

Thanks to a rapidly strengthening El Niño, Atlantic hurricane season has been exceptionally quiet so far. The Atlantic basin has yet to produce a single hurricane, but a storm developing off the Gulf Coast of Mexico looks like it could become the first of the season.

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) expect this system, currently called AL92, to develop into a tropical depression within the next day or so. The storm should continue to strengthen as the week progresses before turning northward toward the Gulf Coast of the United States. While it’s still too early to predict impacts to the region with any certainty, there is a 90% chance that AL92 will become a hurricane within the next 48 hours, so it will likely pack a punch.

“Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and associated flooding impacts could occur over portions of the northern Gulf Coast, the southeastern United States, and Florida later this week and this weekend,” the NHC states.

The National Weather Service (NWS) has issued small craft advisories from the eastern coast of Louisiana to the northeast coast of Florida, as well as scattered flood-related advisories.

Weather models show various scenarios for this storm’s track and development over the next several days. According to Google DeepMind’s WeatherNext 3 model, AL92 will likely reach peak strength between Thursday and Friday, and its maximum sustained wind speed could range from Category 1 to near Category 5 strength.

Potential landfall locations stretch from Biloxi, Mississippi, eastward to the unincorporated community of Seaside on the Florida Panhandle.


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