As the strongest El Niño on record unfolds over the coming months, many parts of the world will see drastic weather shifts. This phenomenon alters atmospheric circulation, temperatures, and precipitation patterns across the globe, and different regions will experience starkly different impacts.

To visualize these impacts, climatologist Zeke Hausfather combined projections from 13 dynamical climate models to create a map showing which parts of the world are likely to be hit hardest by El Niño. He notes that all incorporated models point to strong precipitation anomalies, as the many areas of drought and flood risk clearly show.

It’s important to note that these are predictions, not certainties. Every El Niño influences weather differently, and it doesn’t always lead to expected impacts. This “super” El Niño may turn out to be particularly surprising. Neither scientists nor climate models have ever seen one this strong before, so it’s difficult to grasp exactly what it will look like. What’s more, human-driven climate change could interact with El Niño to produce brand new extreme weather patterns.

I've updated my map of El Niño impacts this year to incorporate 13 dynamical models (NMME and C3S, Sept runs); the initial version was simply based on an assessment of the impacts literature for past very strong events. This also let me refine the impacted areas using the model… pic.twitter.com/IfoVeGDSgO

First, it’s helpful to briefly discuss why El Niño has such a strong influence over global weather patterns. This is the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, the biggest year-to-year climate variation on the planet.

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