The tropical Pacific has seen heat build for months as a “super” El Niño takes shape.

A climate phenomenon that forms every few years, this year’s iteration of El Niño has been on a tear of daily records and is forecast to reach unprecedented strength this winter. While it’s characterized by hotter-than-normal waters in the eastern tropical Pacific, El Niño is a global problem.

It’s fair to wonder how another global problem is interacting with El Niño: climate change, driven by burning fossil fuels. While a hotter climate begetting a hotter El Niño might seem like a done deal, “I have more questions than I have reactions” to what’s happening, says Christopher Callahan, a climate researcher at Indiana University. In other words, the relationship is still an area of active research—and this year’s event could provide vital insights.

El Niño’s added ocean heat affects the atmosphere causing weather patterns around the world shift. Consider it kind of like a domino run, where one tile starts a chain reaction. Such a major slug of heat in the Pacific will act more like a shove then a light flick on the atmosphere, and the resulting shifts in weather expected to be generationally intense.

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is forecasting 100 percent odds of an extremely strong El Niño through December, and above 80 percent odds it stays that way through February. 4 degrees Celsius.

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