While hype levels seem off the charts for the new iPhone 18 Pro and especially the iPhone Duo, the sales figures for smartphones overall are looking pretty ugly.

According to new IDC market research, smartphone sales dropped by a staggering 22% YoY in the third quarter of 2026. That's the largest drop it has ever recorded. This is due to the ongoing RAM crisis and rising prices from all the major vendors.

"However, the worst is yet to come,” said Nabila Popal, senior research director for Worldwide Devices, IDC.

IDC blames an AI-led memory crisis that continues to disrupt the market with escalating component costs and strained supply. "Current indicators suggest that the market has not yet reached the bottom. Memory costs have surged approximately 350% since last year and are still rising, creating substantial pressure on vendor margins and shipments," continued Popal.

IDC says we won't see any recovery from the strained market until at the earliest in 2028.

"Unfortunately, it's consumers who will start to feel the pinch going forward. The third quarter shows the full impact and damage of the memory crisis,” said Francisco Jeronimo, vice president for Worldwide Devices, IDC. “The pressure is now moving from vendors to consumers.

As a result, smartphone owners are deciding not to upgrade as often, and the situation isn't helped by the fact that most the upgrades being offered right now are iterative. "As higher prices reach the shelf, many buyers are keeping their current devices longer," said Jeronimo in IDC's analysis.

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