Anthropic's equity could be worth as much as $4.04 trillion, or nothing at all, according to valuation expert Aswath Damodaran, who also calls the company's share structure "so deviously self-serving that it would put Kim Jong Un to shame."

In his worst case, revenue limps to $200 billion by 2036, margins settle at 10%, compute stays scarce and costly, and regulation hits hard. The equity is then worth minus $373 billion, and the company does not survive as a going concern. In his best case, revenue surges to $1.5 trillion, margins reach 40%, compute becomes cheap and regulation barely bites. The equity is then worth $4.04 trillion.

That gap of over $4 trillion between the two outcomes captures the problem facing anyone trying to put a price on the Claude maker ahead of its listing. Damodaran's own base case lands at about $1.475 trillion, at the lower end of the $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion range being discussed for the IPO. He calls it an upbeat story, which makes the fact that it still falls short of the IPO band all the more telling.

Anthropic filed its 416-page prospectus on October 26. Damodaran, who has long argued that IPO filings have grown longer while becoming less informative, says this one has the usual mix of useful data, legalese and distractions. He sorts the disclosures into what optimists and pessimists will each seize on.

On revenue , the growth has been exponential. Revenue in the first half of 2026 was about 14 times the year-ago level.

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