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AI companies run virtual drug trials, aim to improve success of human studies

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AI companies run virtual drug trials, aim to improve success of human studies

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AI companies run virtual drug trials, aim to improve success of human studies

AI firms are using virtual patients and simulated clinical trials to assess experimental drugs before costly human studies, with some models claiming to predict trial outcomes. Pharma companies see potential in the technology but say human trials remain essential.

Novartis’ experimental del-desiran for a rare type of muscular dystrophy was expected to be a winner, with the Swiss company’s CEO predicting annual peak sales of $5 billion. When a late-stage trial missed its goal last month, shares fell 11%, erasing $30 billion in market value. AI start-up BioinvestGPT was not surprised. In July, it ran a simulated trial to measure how virtual patients would respond to del-desiran and predicted an insignificant clinical benefit. It and other artificial intelligence companies say they are working with some drugmakers on virtual trials to boost the odds an experimental medicine will prove safe and effective when used by actual patients in an expensive traditional clinical trial.

The global biopharmaceutical industry spends some $140 billion a year on human clinical testing, but only around 12% of drug candidates are approved by regulators — a rate that has changed little in decades. AI firms say simulations are being used to identify which pharmaceutical programs are worth moving forward and to assess the value of acquisition targets. As AI tools get better at flagging clinical risks, they say unexpected trial failures may become less frequent.


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