Power Shift is Ellyn Lapointe’s ongoing Gizmodo series that explores advancements in green technology, with a focus on renewable energy, grid modernization, and emissions reduction.

When signs that a strong El Niño was brewing first appeared in late spring, no one could have imagined just how powerful it would become.

Over the last several months, tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures have risen so fast that they’ve already surged past the record-warm peak of the very strong 2015-2016 El Niño. And they’re still climbing. Forecasts suggest this year’s El Niño won’t peak until December, and by that point, sea surface temperatures will likely have risen about 7.2 degrees Fahrenheit (4 degrees Celsius) above average.

El Niño alters weather patterns across the globe, and weather impacts every aspect of our lives, including the power sector. Its effects are often most pronounced during Northern Hemisphere winter, when Americans rely heavily on the grid for heating and lighting. So what could this exceptionally strong El Niño mean for the grid this winter?

The short answer to that question is: It’s complicated. El Niño-driven weather phenomena can damage power infrastructure and affect energy supply and demand, but its effects vary across the United States. Even strong El Niños like this one don’t guarantee specific weather outcomes. Regional differences in grid infrastructure and energy resources will also shape how vulnerable various parts of the country are to El Niño’s impacts.

With that said, stronger El Niños tend to tilt the odds in favor of expected weather outcomes, so experts can make some highly educated guesses about how this winter could unfold, how the power sector might respond, and what that would mean for American households.

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