Want more housing market stories from Lance Lambert’s ResiClub in your inbox? Subscribe to the ResiClub newsletter.

Based on ResiClub’s analysis of the Zillow Home Value Index, nationally aggregated U.S. home prices are up +1.0% year-over-year between September 2025 and September 2026. That’s a month-over-month deceleration from the +1.3% YoY shift between August 2025 to August 2026.

After contracting over the past year, the number of America’s major regional housing markets seeing year-over-year declines is rising again, as the already soft national housing market sees another burst of softening amid the recent runup in long-term yields and mortgage rates.

Home prices are still climbing a tad year-over-year in pockets where active inventory remains well below pre-pandemic 2019 levels, such as certain areas in the Northeast and Midwest. In contrast, some pockets in states like Texas, Florida, Washington and Colorado—where active inventory exceeds pre-pandemic 2019 levels by a solid clip—are seeing either material corrections, modest home price pullbacks, or simply flat pricing.

Looking ahead, the big question is how much of a burst of softening the nationally aggregated housing market will see, now that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate has jumped back above 7.00% amid an already strained affordability environment and a post-boom cyclical cooling period. To keep an eye on it, ResiClub recommends closely monitoring local active inventory over the next several months.

Many of the housing markets seeing the most softness, where homebuyers have gained the most leverage since the Pandemic Housing Boom fizzled out, are primarily located in Sun Belt regions or the Mountain West.

Source link