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Majority of Americans Expect Democrats to Win Control of House; Public Is Split on Senate

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Majority of Americans Expect Democrats to Win Control of House; Public Is Split on Senate

Americans see Democrats as having a better chance to win a House majority than take control of the Senate, according to a new Pew Research Center survey. And the public’s expectations differ widely by party.

% of U.S. adults who say the __ will hold a majority in the Senate …

% of U.S. adults who say the __ will hold a majority in the House of Representatives …

A majority of U.S. adults (55%) expect Democrats to win control of the House of Representatives, while 40% say Republicans will keep the majority, according to the survey conducted Sept. 28-Oct. 4 among 5,062 adults.

Americans are divided when it comes to the Senate: 48% predict Republicans will maintain their majority, and 46% think Democrats will flip control.

In general, it’s best practice in surveys not to ask everyday Americans to play the role of a political pundit. But these so-called “citizen forecasts” serve as a measurement of Americans’ expectations going into an election. And the balance of Americans’ opinion generally tracks with how observers see the political environment.

Even as the public overall sees a greater likelihood of Democrats winning the House than the Senate, Americans’ predictions appear rooted in their partisan affiliation. Majorities in both partisan camps think their party will win control of both chambers of Congress.

We conducted this survey to measure Americans’ expectations about the outcome of the midterm elections. We first asked Americans about their expectations about congressional elections in 2016.

Pew Research Center does research to help the public, media and decision-makers understand important topics.


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